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Prediction for CME (2024-01-20T09:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-20T09:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28649/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen to the south/southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption on the Earth-facing disk stretching from S15E00 to S15E35, with liftoff starting around 2024-01-20T08:27Z. This CME overlaps with another filament eruption on the NE limb which resulted in CME:2024-01-20T09:36Z. | [PRELIMINARY] CME Arrival Note: potential combined arrival of this CME and the CME seen at 2024-01-21T00:36Z beginning around 16:00Z with B_total increase to ~14 nT. This arrival appears to be followed by a solar sector boundary crossing starting around 2024-01-23T19:30Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T16:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T18:22Z (-3.54h, +4.61h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
Time of Launch: 2024/01/20 09:00Z
Plane of Sky 1: 15:30Z; 31.5Rsun; E Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 19:40Z; 31.5Rsun; W Direction
POS Difference: 4:10
POS Midpoint: 17:35Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:35

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.68
Travel Time: ~6.68 * 8:35 = 57:22

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-10-22T18:22Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time: 5%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5
Lead Time: 44.88 hour(s)
Difference: -2.35 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-01-20T19:08Z
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